Grains Report 02/08/19

DJ Survey: USDA U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of acres for 2019-20 U.S. winter wheat that was planted in October and November, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its report at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2019-20 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
Average Range USDA 2018-19
All Winter Wheat 32.0 31.5 – 33.2 32.5
Hard Red Winter 22.5 21.9 – 23.6 22.9
Soft Red Winter 5.9 5.6 – 6.2 6.1
White Winter 3.5 3.2 – 4.0 3.5
All Winter Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Advanced Market 31.7 22.3 5.9 3.5
Agrivisor 32.0 22.6 5.9 3.5
Allendale 32.0 22.3 6.2 3.5
Citizens LLC 32.0
DC Analysis 31.9 22.6 6.0 3.3
EDFMan Capital 32.3 22.7 6.2 3.4
Farm Futures 31.6 22.8 5.6 3.2
Futures INTL 32.5 22.9 6.1 3.5
Hueber Report 32.1 22.6 6.0 3.5
INTL FCStone 31.6 22.3 5.7 3.6
Sid Love Consulting 31.5 22.3 5.8 3.5
Price Group 31.7 21.9 6.2 3.6
Prime-Ag 32.0
RJ O’Brien 31.9 22.4 6.0 3.5
U.S. Commodities 32.5 22.7 5.9 3.4
Western Milling 32.0 22.2 5.8 4.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 33.2 23.6 5.9 3.6

DJ Survey: Dec. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for December 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2018 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range Sept. 2018 Dec. 2017
Corn 12,117 11,940 – 12,699 2,140 12,567
Soybeans 3,687 3,161 – 3,850 438 3,161
Wheat 1,952 1,873 – 2,005 2,379 1,873
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 12,025 3,850 2,005
Agrivisor 11,975 3,805 1,965
Allendale 12,079 3,781 1,973
Citizens LLC 12,125 3,450 1,910
DC Analysis 12,009 3,825 1,974
EDFMan Capital 12,699 3,400 1,900
Farm Futures 12,000 3,719 1,957
Futures INTL 12,567 3,161 1,873
Hueber Report 12,050 3,414 1,945
INTL FCStone 12,144 3,834 1,967
Sid Love Consul 11,940 3,800 2,003
Price Group 12,012 3,725 1,924
Prime-Ag 12,200 3,800 1,975
RJ O’Brien 12,071 3,768 1,973
U.S. Commoditie 11,979 3,770 1,964
Western Milling 12,001 3,841 1,910
Zaner Ag Hedge 12,107 3,737 1,959

DJ February Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Friday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA January USDA 2017-18
Corn 93.3 91.5-95.5 N/A 82.0
Soybeans 116.3 112.2-119.0 N/A 120.3
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 93.0 118.0
Allendale 93.0 118.5
Citizens LLC 94.5 117.0
DC Analysis 93.0 117.0
Doane 92.0 115.5
Farm Futures 93.0 115.0
Hueber Report 91.5 116.5
INTL FCStone 92.4 112.2
North Star 92.0 115.0
Price Group 94.0 115.0
Prime Ag 95.0 118.0
US Commodities 93.5 116.8
Western Milling 94.0 115.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 95.5 119.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA January USDA 2017-18
Corn 43.1 41.0-45.0 N/A 32.0
Soybeans 55.0 52.0-56.0 N/A 37.8
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 44.5 55.0
Allendale 42.0 54.5
Citizens LLC 43.0 54.5
DC Analysis 42.5 52.0
Doane 41.0 54.0
Farm Futures 44.0 55.0
Hueber Report 41.5 55.5
INTL FCStone 43.0 56.0
North Star 42.0 54.0
Price Group 44.0 56.0
Prime Ag 45.0 56.0
US Commodities 42.7 56.0
Western Milling 44.0 56.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 44.0 55.5

DJ World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World 2018-19 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
USDA
Average Range December
Corn 307.5 305.0-311.6 308.8
Soybeans 113.9 109.0-122.6 115.3
Wheat 268.0 266.0-269.7 268.1
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 306.0 117.0 267.0
Allendale 308.9 111.9 269.5
Citizens LLC 305.9 112.5 266.0
Doane 306.0 111.0 266.0
EDF Man 310.0 117.0 268.0
Farm Futures 305.0 109.0 267.9
Hueber Report 307.5 111.1 267.0
INTL FCStone 311.6 122.6 269.5
Northstar 306.0 113.0 267.0
Prime-Ag 308.0 112.0 268.0
RMC 308.6 115.0 268.1
US Commodities 306.9 114.1 269.1
Western Milling 307.0 114.0 269.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 307.1 114.4 269.7

DJ U.S. Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. 2018-19 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA
Average Range December 2017-18
Corn 1,714 1,550-1,858 1,781 2,140
Soybeans 920 800-996 955 438
Wheat 993 950-1,031 974 1,099
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,735 900 1,005
AgriSource 1,550 925 974
Agrivisor 1,678 894 974
Allendale 1,787 971 993
Citizens LLC 1,730 965 974
DC Analysis 1,675 867 1,018
Doane 1,725 890 995
EDF Man 1,740 920 958
Farm Futures 1,684 880 1,028
Hueber Report 1,683 930 974
INTL FCStone 1,858 920 1,013
Sid Love Consulting 1,621 898 980
Northstar 1,708 905 995
Price Group 1,658 800 1,019
Prime-Ag 1,725 945 999
RJ O’Brien 1,840 996 1,031
RMC 1,779 950 974
US Commodities 1,766 960 950
Vantage RM 1,700 910 990
Western Milling 1,660 917 1,015
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,699 969 984

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels) USDA
Average Range December 2017-2018
Corn Production 14,509 14,363-14,602 14,626 14,604
Corn Yield 177.6 175.9-178.5 178.9 176.6
Harvested Acres 81.7 81.4-81.8 81.8 82.7
Soybean Production 4,558 4,490-4,592 4,600 4,411
Soybean Yield 51.7 51.0-52.0 52.1 49.3
Harvested Acres 88.2 87.4-88.5 88.3 89.5
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Harvested Production Yield Harvested
Acres
Advanced Market 14,560 178.0 81.8 4,552 51.5 88.3
AgriSource 14,363 175.9 81.7 4,510 51.1 88.3
Agrivisor 14,470 177.4 81.6 4,569 51.8 88.2
Allendale 14,602 178.5 81.8 4,576 51.7 88.5
Citizens LLC 14,430 177.0 81.5 4,490 51.0 88.0
DC Analysis 14,552 177.9 81.8 4,583 51.9 88.3
Doane 14,550 177.9 81.8 4,565 51.8 88.2
EDF Man 14,507 178.0 81.5 4,563 51.8 88.1
Farm Futures 14,423 177.2 81.4 4,505 51.6 87.4
Hueber Report 14,532 177.7 81.8 4,583 51.9 88.3
INTL FCStone 14,578 178.3 81.8 4,566 51.7 88.3
Sid Love Consultin 14,466 177.5 81.5 4,583 51.8 87.7
North Star 14,503 177.3 81.8 4,582 51.9 88.3
Price Group 14,503 177.4 81.8 4,555 51.6 88.3
Prime-Ag 14,560 178.0 81.8 4,592 52.0 88.3
RJ O’Brien 14,555 178.0 N/A 4,585 51.9 N/A
RMC 14,552 177.9 81.8 4,556 51.6 88.3
US Commodities 14,454 176.7 81.8 4,560 51.7 88.2
Vantage RM 14,503 177.5 81.7 4,546 51.5 88.3
Western Milling 14,525 178.0 81.6 4,537 51.5 88.1
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,494 177.4 81.7 4,564 51.8 88.1

DJ FAO Food Price Index Rose in January
By David Hodari
LONDON–World food prices rose in January, climbing across most categories, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Thursday.
The FAO Food Price Index was up 1.8% from its December level and some 2.2% below the level from the same month last year, the organization said.
Dairy prices rose 7.2%, while meat prices were roughly unchanged from their December price. Vegetable oils rose 4.3% on month after a protracted fall.
Cereal prices ticked up on month, and were 7.3% on year. Prices of most cereals, apart from rice, kept prices supported, with adverse weather conditions in South America a factor.
Sugar prices rose 2.4% on month, rallying with rising oil prices and a firmer Brazilian real.

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower yesterday despite strong weekly export sales as the US said that there would not be a meeting between Trump and the Chinese president before the tariff increase deadline. It was another old report and did not mean that much to the trade. Al eyes are on USDA tomorrow as they finally release the important January and February reports. Export demand so far this year has been disappointing and USDA might cut estimates on Friday. The Wheat Seedings Report could show less planted area than expected due to wet conditions in the Great Plains and Midwest at planting time for Winter Wheat. Traders were also keeping an eye on the weather as extreme and possibly record cold invaded the US Midwest last week. The SRW crop was at risk, especially in areas with little or no snow cover. Temperatures have moderated, but it could take a while for the damage to show as it is still Winter and the crop is dormant. World prices have been stable to firm over the last few weeks, and the US price has held or improved.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some mixed precipitation this week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see frequent chances for precipitation this week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 501 and 489 March. Support is at 511, 509, and 508 March, with resistance at 521, 524, and 529 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 485, 477, and 462 March. Support is at 492, 488, and 485 March, with resistance at 507, 513, and 518 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 561, 549, and 534 March. Support is at 561, 557, and 553 March, and resistance is at 569, 573, and 576 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday in preparation for the USDA reports today. Trade action for the last week has been slow, and the buying has not been strong enough to propel futures to new highs for the move. Producer selling is still hard to find. Demand from the mills is said to be quiet, but export demand should be solid as US prices are competitive into Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Basis levels remain generally firm in Arkansas, but are weak in Texas. The Arkansas market needs a little Rice and is not getting much offer from the producers. Basis levels have shown some weakness near the Gulf coast due to light demand.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1042, 1034, and 1031 March, with resistance at 1059, 1067, and 1076 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower yesterday on some positioning before the USDA reports today and as the market learned that the presidents of the US and China would not meet before the tariff deadline. The trade expects a bullish report. The Corn data for last year is expected to show reduced production. Demand could be a little weaker as well, especially with the current weakness in the ethanol market. It remains dry and hot in central and northern Brazil, but the weather patterns are starting to change and feature at least some showers in important Winter Corn growing areas. The Soybeans harvest is expanding in Mato Grosso and Parana, and farmers will be ready to plant the winter Corn once the Soybeans are out. The harvest pace and planting pace have been ahead of normal there and also in Parana. Trends are currently sideways on the daily charts and sideways on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was lower at 967,000 barrels per day, down from 1.031 million the previous week. Stocks rose to 23.9 million barrels. Year-to-date estimated Corn use for ethanol rose to 2.214 billion bushels, which is down 2.5% from last year and below the pace needed to hit USDA’s target by 32 million bushels.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 284, 280, and 278 March, and resistance is at 289, 294, and 296 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower yesterday on news that the US and Chinese presidents would not meet before the deadline for increasing tariffs. Traders were getting ready for the USDA reports today. Traders look for reduced US production and also reduced US demand. Private Brazil production estimates range from about 110 million tons to about 115 million tons. The hot and dry weather in Brazil is still causing production estimates there to drop, but the market has not really reacted much to that news, either, as conditions have started to improve with the introduction of some showers in some of the drier areas. US Soybean Meal supplies should be increasing as crushers  look to produce Soybean Oil due to higher prices in that product, and Soybean Meal trends are starting to turn down. Basis has been weaker, and there are reports of increasing offers from Argentina. There are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 891 and 875 March. Support is at 909, 906, and 900 March, and resistance is at 918, 922, and 924 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 305.00 and 299.00 March. Support is at 305.00, 304.00, and 301.00 March, and resistance is at 309.00, 312.00, and 314.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3110 and 3210 March. Support is at 3050, 3030, and 3010 March, with resistance at 3100, 3160, and 3190 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower in front of the USDA reports. Speculators and domestic processors were the best buyers, and speculators and producers were the best sellers. Soybean Oil was much higher and supported Canola. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is down this year. Chart trends are trying to turn up again. Palm Oil was higher as prices caught up to the rallies this week in Soybean Oil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 480.00, 474.00, and 471.00 March, with resistance at 486.00, 489.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2340 April. Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2250 April, with resistance at 2340, 2350, and 2380 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation off and on all week, then a mostly dry weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal this week and mostly below normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 61 March 158 March 86 March 301 March Price
March 60 March 90 March 30 March
April 51 May 80 May 21 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
February 52 March
March 55 March -13 March
April 52 May -17 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 7
WINNIPEG, Feb. 7 (CNS Canada) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 467.80 up 2.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 499.20 dn 0.60
2 Can 486.20 dn 0.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 514.20 dn 0.60
2 Can 501.20 dn 0.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 575.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 585.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 597.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 597.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 580.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 590.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 602.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 602.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 560.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 445.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,220 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 183.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0700)